![]() ![]() Green condition These risks are generally fairly low in impact, probability, or both. Red condition These high-risk scores are high in impact and probability.Īmber condition (aka yellow condition) These risks are somewhat high in impact and probability. There are three common categories based on risk score: Based on the risk score, the performing organization can place the risk in differing categories to guide risk reaction. The scores within the probability-impact matrix can be referenced against the performing organization’s policies for risk reaction. Ordinal scales Identify and rank the risks with common terms, such as very high to very unlikely, or using a RAG (red, amber, green) rating to signify the risk score.Cardinal scales Identify the probability and impact on a numeric value from 0.01 (very low) to 1.00 (certain).The probability of occurrence for each individual project risk is assessed as well as its impact on one or more project objectives if it does occur, using definitions of probability and impact for the project as specified in the risk management plan. This matrix specifies combinations of probability and impact that allow individual project risks to be divided into priority groups. It uses a numerical scale to rate the likelihood and impact of each risk, which can then be used to prioritize risks and develop strategies to mitigate or manage them. If a risk has a low probability (1) and a low impact (1) it will have an overall score of two and will be in the lower right corner of the cube.Ī Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) discusses both Risk Probability and Impact Assessment and the Probability and Impact Matrix in sections 11.3.2.1, & 11.3.2.A probability and impact matrix is a tool used in qualitative risk analysis to evaluate the likelihood and impact of identified risks. Using the scores mentioned above, if a risk has a high probability (3) and high impact (3) it will have an overall score of 6 and will be in upper left hand corner of the cube. Imagine a three by three cube with probability on the left with high on the top, medium in the middle, and low on the bottom and impact across the bottom with high on the left, medium in the middle, and low on the right. Upon completion of an impact assessment a risk is often given an impact score such as high = 3, medium = 2, or low = 1.Ī Probability and Impact Matrix is a visual representation of the results from Risk Probability and Impact Assessments. If the risk would to occur would it be catastrophic to the project or a minor inconvenience? An impact assessment is generally conducted in meetings or in interviews with individuals who have the appropriate knowledge to evaluate the impact of a risk. Impact Assessment is the evaluation of the impact of a risk if it were to occur. ![]() When determining the probability of a risk occurring it is often given a score such as high = 3, medium = 2, or low = 1. This likelihood can be based on historical project information, does the risk typically occur? Or the likelihood of risks can come from interviews or meetings with individuals who would have knowledge of the probability of risks occurring. ![]() Risk Probability is the determination of the likelihood of a risk occurring. You may even come across PMP Exam sample questions that focus on these terms: If you are preparing for the Project Management Professional (PMP)® Exam then you need to know about risk, probability and impact. What are Risk Probabilty, Impact Assessment, Prob & Impact Matrix? ![]()
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